Department of Numbers

Virginia COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Virginia had 2,012 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Virginia was finding 201 new cases per day on average and recording 4.6 deaths per day. Data for Virginia is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Virginia a data quality grade of: A

Compare Virginia COVID-19 data to other states.

Virginia average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Virginia. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Virginia testing per million residents per day is 195.3. Virginia testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Virginia average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Virginia

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 2,012 236 201 23.6
04/02/20 1,706 200 178 20.9
04/01/20 1,484 174 156 18.3
03/31/20 1,250 146 137 16.1
03/30/20 1,020 120 109 12.8
03/29/20 890 104 96 11.2
03/28/20 739 87 84 9.8
03/27/20 604 71 70 8.2
03/26/20 460 54 52 6.1
03/25/20 391 46 45 5.3
03/24/20 290 34 32 3.7
03/23/20 254 30 29 3.4
03/22/20 219 26 25 2.9
03/21/20 152 18 17 2.0
03/20/20 114 13 12 1.4

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Virginia

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 46 5.4 4.6 0.5
04/02/20 41 4.8 4.0 0.5
04/01/20 34 4.0 3.6 0.4
03/31/20 27 3.2 2.9 0.3
03/30/20 25 2.9 2.7 0.3
03/29/20 22 2.6 2.7 0.3
03/28/20 17 2.0 2.1 0.2
03/27/20 14 1.6 1.7 0.2
03/26/20 13 1.5 1.6 0.2
03/25/20 9 1.1 1.1 0.1
03/24/20 7 0.8 0.9 0.1
03/23/20 6 0.7 0.7 0.1
03/22/20 3 0.3 0.3 0.0
03/21/20 2 0.2 0.3 0.0
03/20/20 2 0.2 0.3 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Virginia

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 19,005 2,227 1,667 195 12.1%
04/02/20 17,589 2,061 1,629 191 10.9%
04/01/20 15,344 1,798 1,425 167 11.0%
03/31/20 13,401 1,570 1,276 149 10.8%
03/30/20 12,038 1,410 1,192 140 9.2%
03/29/20 10,609 1,243 1,039 122 9.2%
03/28/20 9,166 1,074 911 107 9.2%
03/27/20 7,337 860 716 84 9.8%
03/26/20 6,189 725 609 71 8.6%
03/25/20 5,370 629 585 68 7.7%
03/24/20 4,470 524 492 58 6.5%
03/23/20 3,697 433 458 54 6.3%
03/22/20 3,337 391 418 49 5.9%
03/21/20 2,790 327 378 44 4.6%
03/20/20 2,325 272 311 36 3.9%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.