Department of Numbers

Vermont COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Vermont had 389 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Vermont was finding 29 new cases per day on average and recording 1.0 deaths per day. Data for Vermont is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Vermont a data quality grade of: A

Compare Vermont COVID-19 data to other states.

Vermont average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Vermont. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Vermont testing per million residents per day is 679.3.

Vermont average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Vermont

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 389 623 29 46.9
04/02/20 338 542 26 41.2
04/01/20 321 514 28 45.3
03/31/20 293 470 28 45.3
03/30/20 256 410 26 41.4
03/29/20 235 377 26 41.9
03/28/20 211 338 26 41.7
03/27/20 184 295 22 35.5
03/26/20 158 253 19 31.1
03/25/20 123 197 15 23.8
03/24/20 95 152 12 19.5
03/23/20 75 120 10 15.3
03/22/20 52 83 7 11.0
03/21/20 29 46 4 5.7
03/20/20 29 46 4 6.2

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Vermont

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 17 27.2 1.0 1.6
04/02/20 17 27.2 1.1 1.8
04/01/20 16 25.6 1.1 1.8
03/31/20 13 20.8 0.9 1.4
03/30/20 12 19.2 1.0 1.6
03/29/20 12 19.2 1.4 2.3
03/28/20 12 19.2 1.4 2.3
03/27/20 10 16.0 1.1 1.8
03/26/20 9 14.4 1.3 2.1
03/25/20 8 12.8 1.1 1.8
03/24/20 7 11.2 1.0 1.6
03/23/20 5 8.0 0.7 1.1
03/22/20 2 3.2 0.3 0.5
03/21/20 2 3.2 0.3 0.5
03/20/20 2 3.2 0.3 0.5

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Vermont

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 5,228 8,378 424 679 6.9%
04/02/20 5,049 8,091 434 696 5.9%
04/01/20 4,495 7,204 398 637 7.1%
03/31/20 4,250 6,811 388 622 7.3%
03/30/20 3,930 6,298 393 629 6.6%
03/29/20 3,701 5,931 363 582 7.2%
03/28/20 2,374 3,805 224 359 11.6%
03/27/20 2,261 3,623 208 333 10.7%
03/26/20 2,008 3,218 192 307 10.1%
03/25/20 1,712 2,744 157 252 9.4%
03/24/20 1,535 2,460 147 236 8.2%
03/23/20 1,181 1,893 107 172 8.9%
03/22/20 1,158 1,856 115 185 6.0%
03/21/20 808 1,295 82 132 4.3%
03/20/20 808 1,295 95 152 4.1%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.