Department of Numbers

Texas COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Texas had 5,330 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Texas was finding 514 new cases per day on average and recording 9.6 deaths per day. Data for Texas is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Texas a data quality grade of: A

Compare Texas COVID-19 data to other states.

Texas average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Texas. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Texas testing per million residents per day is 158.1. Texas testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Texas average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Texas

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 5,330 184 514 17.7
04/02/20 4,669 161 468 16.1
04/01/20 3,997 138 432 14.9
03/31/20 3,266 113 408 14.1
03/30/20 2,877 99 361 12.4
03/29/20 2,552 88 317 10.9
03/28/20 2,052 71 250 8.6
03/27/20 1,731 60 220 7.6
03/26/20 1,396 48 179 6.2
03/25/20 974 34 127 4.4
03/24/20 410 14 49 1.7
03/23/20 352 12 42 1.4
03/22/20 334 12 40 1.4
03/21/20 304 10 36 1.2
03/20/20 194 7 22 0.8

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Texas

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 90 3.1 9.6 0.3
04/02/20 70 2.4 7.4 0.3
04/01/20 58 2.0 6.6 0.2
03/31/20 41 1.4 4.6 0.2
03/30/20 34 1.2 3.7 0.1
03/29/20 34 1.2 4.1 0.1
03/28/20 27 0.9 3.1 0.1
03/27/20 23 0.8 2.6 0.1
03/26/20 18 0.6 2.1 0.1
03/25/20 12 0.4 1.4 0.1
03/24/20 9 0.3 1.1 0.0
03/23/20 8 0.3 1.1 0.0
03/22/20 5 0.2 0.7 0.0
03/21/20 5 0.2 0.7 0.0
03/20/20 5 0.2 0.7 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Texas

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 55,764 1,923 4,585 158 11.2%
04/02/20 50,679 1,748 4,179 144 11.2%
04/01/20 47,857 1,650 4,909 169 8.8%
03/31/20 42,992 1,483 4,546 157 9.0%
03/30/20 35,880 1,237 3,689 127 9.8%
03/29/20 25,760 888 2,429 84 13.0%
03/28/20 25,260 871 2,677 92 9.3%
03/27/20 23,666 816 2,627 91 8.4%
03/26/20 21,424 739 2,724 94 6.6%
03/25/20 13,494 465 1,655 57 7.7%
03/24/20 11,167 385 1,414 49 3.5%
03/23/20 10,055 347 1,428 49 2.9%
03/22/20 8,756 302 1,243 43 3.2%
03/21/20 6,522 225 924 32 3.9%
03/20/20 5,277 182 748 26 3.0%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.