Department of Numbers

Tennessee COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Tennessee had 3,067 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Tennessee was finding 266 new cases per day on average and recording 4.4 deaths per day. Data for Tennessee is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Tennessee a data quality grade of: A

Compare Tennessee COVID-19 data to other states.

Tennessee average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Tennessee. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Tennessee testing per million residents per day is 454.7.

Tennessee average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Tennessee

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 3,067 449 266 39.0
04/02/20 2,845 416 270 39.5
04/01/20 2,683 393 271 39.7
03/31/20 2,239 328 225 32.9
03/30/20 1,834 268 174 25.5
03/29/20 1,537 225 147 21.6
03/28/20 1,373 201 143 20.9
03/27/20 1,203 176 139 20.4
03/26/20 957 140 115 16.8
03/25/20 784 115 98 14.3
03/24/20 667 98 85 12.4
03/23/20 615 90 80 11.8
03/22/20 505 74 67 9.7
03/21/20 371 54 48 7.1
03/20/20 228 33 29 4.2

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Tennessee

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 37 5.4 4.4 0.7
04/02/20 32 4.7 4.1 0.6
04/01/20 24 3.5 3.0 0.4
03/31/20 23 3.4 3.0 0.4
03/30/20 13 1.9 1.6 0.2
03/29/20 7 1.0 1.0 0.1
03/28/20 6 0.9 0.9 0.1
03/27/20 6 0.9 0.9 0.1
03/26/20 3 0.4 0.4 0.1
03/25/20 3 0.4 0.4 0.1
03/24/20 2 0.3 0.3 0.0
03/23/20 2 0.3 0.3 0.0
03/22/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/21/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Tennessee

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 37,839 5,538 3,107 455 8.6%
04/02/20 34,611 5,065 2,815 412 9.6%
04/01/20 32,452 4,749 2,951 432 9.2%
03/31/20 27,360 4,004 2,311 338 9.7%
03/30/20 23,304 3,410 2,774 406 6.3%
03/29/20 20,574 3,011 2,400 351 6.1%
03/28/20 18,338 2,684 2,099 307 6.8%
03/27/20 16,091 2,355 2,186 320 6.4%
03/26/20 14,909 2,182 2,058 301 5.6%
03/25/20 11,796 1,726 1,621 237 6.0%
03/24/20 11,184 1,637 1,540 225 5.5%
03/23/20 3,887 569 509 75 15.8%
03/22/20 3,777 553 512 75 13.0%
03/21/20 3,643 533 497 73 9.7%
03/20/20 791 116 93 14 31.1%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.