Department of Numbers

Pennsylvania COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Pennsylvania had 8,420 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Pennsylvania was finding 886 new cases per day on average and recording 11.4 deaths per day. Data for Pennsylvania is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Pennsylvania a data quality grade of: A

Compare Pennsylvania COVID-19 data to other states.

Pennsylvania average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Pennsylvania. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Pennsylvania testing per million residents per day is 433.9.

Pennsylvania average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 8,420 658 886 69.2
04/02/20 7,016 548 761 59.5
04/01/20 5,805 453 668 52.2
03/31/20 4,843 378 570 44.5
03/30/20 4,087 319 492 38.4
03/29/20 3,394 265 416 32.5
03/28/20 2,751 215 340 26.6
03/27/20 2,218 173 279 21.8
03/26/20 1,687 132 215 16.8
03/25/20 1,127 88 142 11.1
03/24/20 851 66 108 8.4
03/23/20 644 50 81 6.3
03/22/20 479 37 59 4.6
03/21/20 371 29 46 3.6
03/20/20 268 21 34 2.6

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Pennsylvania

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 102 8.0 11.4 0.9
04/02/20 90 7.0 10.6 0.8
04/01/20 74 5.8 9.0 0.7
03/31/20 63 4.9 8.0 0.6
03/30/20 49 3.8 6.1 0.5
03/29/20 38 3.0 5.1 0.4
03/28/20 34 2.7 4.6 0.4
03/27/20 22 1.7 3.0 0.2
03/26/20 16 1.2 2.1 0.2
03/25/20 11 0.9 1.6 0.1
03/24/20 7 0.6 1.0 0.1
03/23/20 6 0.5 0.9 0.1
03/22/20 2 0.2 0.3 0.0
03/21/20 2 0.2 0.3 0.0
03/20/20 1 0.1 0.1 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Pennsylvania

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 62,115 4,852 5,554 434 16.0%
04/02/20 54,714 4,274 5,227 408 14.6%
04/01/20 48,232 3,768 5,130 401 13.0%
03/31/20 42,488 3,319 4,713 368 12.1%
03/30/20 37,864 2,958 4,375 342 11.2%
03/29/20 33,455 2,613 4,002 313 10.4%
03/28/20 28,005 2,188 3,410 266 10.0%
03/27/20 23,234 1,815 2,913 228 9.6%
03/26/20 18,128 1,416 2,334 182 9.2%
03/25/20 12,320 962 1,571 123 9.0%
03/24/20 9,494 742 1,217 95 8.9%
03/23/20 7,239 565 928 72 8.8%
03/22/20 5,443 425 739 58 8.0%
03/21/20 4,137 323 555 43 8.3%
03/20/20 2,842 222 381 30 8.8%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.