Department of Numbers

North Carolina COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, North Carolina had 2,093 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, North Carolina was finding 190 new cases per day on average and recording 2.3 deaths per day. Data for North Carolina is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives North Carolina a data quality grade of: A

Compare North Carolina COVID-19 data to other states.

North Carolina average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for North Carolina. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported North Carolina testing per million residents per day is 224.2. North Carolina testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

North Carolina average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in North Carolina

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 2,093 200 190 18.1
04/02/20 1,857 177 174 16.6
04/01/20 1,584 151 154 14.7
03/31/20 1,498 143 157 15.0
03/30/20 1,307 125 144 13.8
03/29/20 1,040 99 112 10.7
03/28/20 935 89 107 10.2
03/27/20 763 73 89 8.5
03/26/20 636 61 77 7.3
03/25/20 504 48 63 6.0
03/24/20 398 38 51 4.9
03/23/20 297 28 38 3.6
03/22/20 255 24 32 3.0
03/21/20 184 18 23 2.2
03/20/20 137 13 17 1.7

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in North Carolina

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 19 1.8 2.3 0.2
04/02/20 16 1.5 2.0 0.2
04/01/20 10 0.9 1.3 0.1
03/31/20 8 0.8 1.1 0.1
03/30/20 6 0.6 0.9 0.1
03/29/20 4 0.4 0.6 0.1
03/28/20 4 0.4 0.6 0.1
03/27/20 3 0.3 0.4 0.0
03/26/20 2 0.2 0.3 0.0
03/25/20 1 0.1 0.1 0.0
03/24/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/23/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/22/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/21/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in North Carolina

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 31,598 3,013 2,352 224 8.1%
04/02/20 28,679 2,734 2,253 215 7.7%
04/01/20 26,243 2,502 2,251 215 6.9%
03/31/20 23,106 2,203 2,081 198 7.5%
03/30/20 20,864 1,989 1,775 169 8.1%
03/29/20 18,945 1,806 1,787 170 6.3%
03/28/20 17,527 1,671 1,750 167 6.1%
03/27/20 15,136 1,443 1,700 162 5.3%
03/26/20 12,910 1,231 1,486 142 5.2%
03/25/20 10,489 1,000 1,234 118 5.1%
03/24/20 8,539 814 1,146 109 4.5%
03/23/20 8,438 805 1,158 110 3.3%
03/22/20 6,438 614 883 84 3.6%
03/21/20 5,276 503 731 70 3.1%
03/20/20 3,233 308 447 43 3.9%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.