New Jersey COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics
As of Friday April 03 2020, New Jersey had 29,895 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, New Jersey was finding 3,010 new cases per day on average and recording 76.9 deaths per day. Data for New Jersey is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives New Jersey a data quality grade of: B
New Jersey average daily new cases
The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for New Jersey. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.
Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported New Jersey testing per million residents per day is 677.6.
New Jersey average daily deaths
Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.
Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in New Jersey
Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.
Death statistics for COVID-19 in New Jersey
Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.
COVID-19 testing statistics in New Jersey
Testing metrics for New Jersey are too low for me to have faith that they are being accurately reported. I'm only reporting testing statistics for states with an A data grade from the COVID Tracking Project that test at a rate of at least 100 per million residents per day. New Jersey is either not testing at that level or is not reporting their testing fully.
A final word on this analysis
In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.
Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!
Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.