Department of Numbers

Montana COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Montana had 243 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Montana was finding 19 new cases per day on average and recording 0.7 deaths per day. Data for Montana is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Montana a data quality grade of: A

Compare Montana COVID-19 data to other states.

Montana average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Montana. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Montana testing per million residents per day is 384.7.

Montana average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Montana

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 243 227 19 18.0
04/02/20 227 212 22 20.9
04/01/20 208 195 22 20.7
03/31/20 184 172 20 18.4
03/30/20 171 160 20 18.3
03/29/20 154 144 18 16.4
03/28/20 129 121 16 14.6
03/27/20 108 101 13 12.3
03/26/20 71 66 8 7.9
03/25/20 53 50 6 5.8
03/24/20 46 43 5 5.1
03/23/20 34 32 4 3.6
03/22/20 31 29 3 3.2
03/21/20 20 19 2 2.0
03/20/20 16 15 2 2.0

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Montana

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 5 4.7 0.7 0.7
04/02/20 5 4.7 0.7 0.7
04/01/20 5 4.7 0.7 0.7
03/31/20 4 3.7 0.6 0.5
03/30/20 4 3.7 0.6 0.5
03/29/20 1 0.9 0.1 0.1
03/28/20 1 0.9 0.1 0.1
03/27/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/26/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/25/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/24/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/23/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/22/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/21/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Montana

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 5,576 5,217 411 385 4.7%
04/02/20 5,320 4,978 446 417 5.0%
04/01/20 4,918 4,602 417 390 5.3%
03/31/20 4,418 4,134 390 365 5.1%
03/30/20 4,132 3,866 422 395 4.6%
03/29/20 4,297 4,020 446 417 3.9%
03/28/20 3,385 3,167 317 297 4.9%
03/27/20 2,698 2,524 250 234 5.2%
03/26/20 2,199 2,057 204 191 4.1%
03/25/20 2,001 1,872 213 199 2.9%
03/24/20 1,689 1,580 197 184 2.8%
03/23/20 1,180 1,104 139 130 2.8%
03/22/20 1,177 1,101 152 143 2.2%
03/21/20 1,166 1,091 151 141 1.4%
03/20/20 947 886 127 119 1.7%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.