Department of Numbers

Minnesota COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Minnesota had 789 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Minnesota was finding 56 new cases per day on average and recording 2.6 deaths per day. Data for Minnesota is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Minnesota a data quality grade of: A

Compare Minnesota COVID-19 data to other states.

Minnesota average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Minnesota. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Minnesota testing per million residents per day is 259.0. Minnesota testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Minnesota average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Minnesota

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 789 140 56 9.9
04/02/20 742 132 57 10.0
04/01/20 689 122 57 10.2
03/31/20 629 112 52 9.3
03/30/20 576 102 49 8.6
03/29/20 503 89 48 8.5
03/28/20 441 78 43 7.7
03/27/20 398 71 40 7.2
03/26/20 346 61 37 6.5
03/25/20 287 51 30 5.3
03/24/20 262 46 29 5.1
03/23/20 235 42 26 4.6
03/22/20 169 30 19 3.4
03/21/20 138 24 17 3.0
03/20/20 115 20 14 2.6

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Minnesota

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 22 3.9 2.6 0.5
04/02/20 18 3.2 2.3 0.4
04/01/20 17 3.0 2.3 0.4
03/31/20 12 2.1 1.6 0.3
03/30/20 10 1.8 1.3 0.2
03/29/20 9 1.6 1.1 0.2
03/28/20 5 0.9 0.6 0.1
03/27/20 4 0.7 0.6 0.1
03/26/20 2 0.3 0.3 0.1
03/25/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0
03/24/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0
03/23/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0
03/22/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0
03/21/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Minnesota

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 24,227 4,296 1,461 259 3.8%
04/02/20 22,394 3,971 1,349 239 4.2%
04/01/20 21,191 3,758 1,388 246 4.1%
03/31/20 19,780 3,507 1,995 354 2.6%
03/30/20 18,822 3,337 2,011 357 2.4%
03/29/20 17,657 3,131 1,854 329 2.6%
03/28/20 16,129 2,860 1,720 305 2.5%
03/27/20 14,003 2,483 1,450 257 2.8%
03/26/20 12,950 2,296 1,416 251 2.6%
03/25/20 11,475 2,035 1,245 221 2.4%
03/24/20 5,812 1,031 497 88 5.8%
03/23/20 4,746 842 408 72 6.3%
03/22/20 4,680 830 465 83 4.1%
03/21/20 4,090 725 460 82 3.6%
03/20/20 3,856 684 472 84 3.1%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.