Department of Numbers

Kentucky COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Kentucky had 770 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Kentucky was finding 75 new cases per day on average and recording 3.6 deaths per day. Data for Kentucky is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Kentucky a data quality grade of: A

Compare Kentucky COVID-19 data to other states.

Kentucky average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Kentucky. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Kentucky testing per million residents per day is 281.0. Kentucky testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Kentucky average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Kentucky

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 770 172 75 16.7
04/02/20 680 152 69 15.4
04/01/20 591 132 62 13.9
03/31/20 480 107 51 11.4
03/30/20 439 98 48 10.7
03/29/20 394 88 42 9.4
03/28/20 302 68 35 7.9
03/27/20 248 56 29 6.4
03/26/20 198 44 23 5.2
03/25/20 157 35 19 4.2
03/24/20 124 28 15 3.3
03/23/20 104 23 12 2.6
03/22/20 99 22 12 2.6
03/21/20 54 12 6 1.3
03/20/20 47 11 5 1.1

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Kentucky

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 31 6.9 3.6 0.8
04/02/20 20 4.5 2.3 0.5
04/01/20 17 3.8 1.9 0.4
03/31/20 11 2.5 1.0 0.2
03/30/20 9 2.0 0.9 0.2
03/29/20 9 2.0 0.9 0.2
03/28/20 8 1.8 0.9 0.2
03/27/20 6 1.3 0.7 0.2
03/26/20 4 0.9 0.4 0.1
03/25/20 4 0.9 0.4 0.1
03/24/20 4 0.9 0.4 0.1
03/23/20 3 0.7 0.3 0.1
03/22/20 3 0.7 0.4 0.1
03/21/20 2 0.5 0.3 0.1
03/20/20 1 0.2 0.1 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Kentucky

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 12,804 2,866 1,255 281 5.9%
04/02/20 7,900 1,768 657 147 10.5%
04/01/20 7,556 1,691 648 145 9.6%
03/31/20 6,810 1,524 703 157 7.2%
03/30/20 6,018 1,347 593 133 8.1%
03/29/20 5,541 1,240 567 127 7.4%
03/28/20 5,123 1,147 622 139 5.7%
03/27/20 4,016 899 482 108 5.9%
03/26/20 3,300 739 402 90 5.8%
03/25/20 3,022 676 377 84 5.0%
03/24/20 1,886 422 224 50 6.5%
03/23/20 1,866 418 230 52 5.1%
03/22/20 1,571 352 202 45 5.9%
03/21/20 768 172 88 20 6.5%
03/20/20 639 143 74 17 6.9%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.