Department of Numbers

Illinois COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Illinois had 8,904 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Illinois was finding 840 new cases per day on average and recording 25.1 deaths per day. Data for Illinois is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Illinois a data quality grade of: A

Compare Illinois COVID-19 data to other states.

Illinois average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Illinois. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Illinois testing per million residents per day is 298.8. Illinois testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Illinois average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Illinois

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 8,904 703 840 66.3
04/02/20 7,695 607 737 58.1
04/01/20 6,980 551 731 57.7
03/31/20 5,994 473 637 50.3
03/30/20 5,057 399 541 42.7
03/29/20 4,596 363 507 40.0
03/28/20 3,491 275 391 30.9
03/27/20 3,026 239 349 27.5
03/26/20 2,538 200 302 23.9
03/25/20 1,865 147 225 17.8
03/24/20 1,535 121 197 15.5
03/23/20 1,273 100 169 13.3
03/22/20 1,049 83 141 11.1
03/21/20 753 59 101 8.0
03/20/20 585 46 79 6.2

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Illinois

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 210 16.6 25.1 2.0
04/02/20 157 12.4 18.7 1.5
04/01/20 141 11.1 17.4 1.4
03/31/20 99 7.8 11.9 0.9
03/30/20 73 5.8 8.7 0.7
03/29/20 65 5.1 8.0 0.6
03/28/20 47 3.7 5.9 0.5
03/27/20 34 2.7 4.1 0.3
03/26/20 26 2.0 3.1 0.2
03/25/20 19 1.5 2.6 0.2
03/24/20 16 1.3 2.1 0.2
03/23/20 12 0.9 1.7 0.1
03/22/20 9 0.7 1.3 0.1
03/21/20 6 0.5 0.9 0.1
03/20/20 5 0.4 0.7 0.1

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Illinois

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 48,048 3,792 3,787 299 22.2%
04/02/20 43,656 3,445 3,861 305 19.1%
04/01/20 40,384 3,187 3,739 295 19.5%
03/31/20 35,225 2,780 3,394 268 18.8%
03/30/20 30,446 2,403 2,941 232 18.4%
03/29/20 27,762 2,191 2,777 219 18.2%
03/28/20 25,491 2,012 2,750 217 14.2%
03/27/20 21,542 1,700 2,466 195 14.1%
03/26/20 16,631 1,312 1,926 152 15.7%
03/25/20 14,209 1,121 1,737 137 13.0%
03/24/20 11,469 905 1,424 112 13.8%
03/23/20 9,856 778 1,262 100 13.4%
03/22/20 8,320 657 1,115 88 12.6%
03/21/20 6,241 493 840 66 12.0%
03/20/20 4,281 338 565 45 14.0%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.