Department of Numbers

Connecticut COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Connecticut had 4,914 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Connecticut was finding 518 new cases per day on average and recording 14.9 deaths per day. Data for Connecticut is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Connecticut a data quality grade of: A

Compare Connecticut COVID-19 data to other states.

Connecticut average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Connecticut. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Connecticut testing per million residents per day is 465.4.

Connecticut average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Connecticut

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 4,914 1,378 518 145.2
04/02/20 3,824 1,073 402 112.7
04/01/20 3,557 998 383 107.5
03/31/20 3,128 877 359 100.6
03/30/20 2,571 721 308 86.4
03/29/20 1,993 559 253 70.9
03/28/20 1,291 362 157 44.0
03/27/20 1,291 362 157 44.0
03/26/20 1,012 284 131 36.7
03/25/20 875 245 115 32.3
03/24/20 618 173 82 23.1
03/23/20 415 116 56 15.6
03/22/20 223 63 29 8.1
03/21/20 194 54 26 7.3
03/20/20 194 54 27 7.5

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Connecticut

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 131 36.7 14.9 4.2
04/02/20 112 31.4 13.0 3.6
04/01/20 85 23.8 9.4 2.6
03/31/20 69 19.4 8.1 2.3
03/30/20 36 10.1 3.7 1.0
03/29/20 34 9.5 4.1 1.2
03/28/20 27 7.6 3.3 0.9
03/27/20 27 7.6 3.4 1.0
03/26/20 21 5.9 2.9 0.8
03/25/20 19 5.3 2.7 0.8
03/24/20 12 3.4 1.7 0.5
03/23/20 10 2.8 1.4 0.4
03/22/20 5 1.4 0.7 0.2
03/21/20 4 1.1 0.6 0.2
03/20/20 3 0.8 0.4 0.1

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Connecticut

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 20,015 5,614 1,659 465 31.2%
04/02/20 18,300 5,133 1,666 467 24.1%
04/01/20 16,600 4,656 1,529 429 25.1%
03/31/20 16,157 4,532 1,551 435 23.1%
03/30/20 14,600 4,095 1,443 405 21.3%
03/29/20 11,900 3,338 1,257 353 20.1%
03/28/20 8,400 2,356 871 244 18.0%
03/27/20 8,400 2,356 1,086 305 14.4%
03/26/20 6,637 1,862 848 238 15.4%
03/25/20 5,898 1,654 815 229 14.1%
03/24/20 5,300 1,487 733 206 11.2%
03/23/20 4,500 1,262 621 174 8.9%
03/22/20 3,100 870 422 118 6.9%
03/21/20 2,300 645 309 87 8.5%
03/20/20 798 224 99 28 27.1%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.