Department of Numbers

Arkansas COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Arkansas had 704 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Arkansas was finding 46 new cases per day on average and recording 1.3 deaths per day. Data for Arkansas is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Arkansas a data quality grade of: A

Compare Arkansas COVID-19 data to other states.

Arkansas average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Arkansas. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Arkansas testing per million residents per day is 368.0.

Arkansas average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Arkansas

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 704 233 46 15.3
04/02/20 643 213 44 14.6
04/01/20 584 194 43 14.4
03/31/20 523 173 44 14.4
03/30/20 473 157 43 14.2
03/29/20 426 141 37 12.4
03/28/20 404 134 41 13.5
03/27/20 381 126 41 13.5
03/26/20 335 111 41 13.7
03/25/20 280 93 35 11.7
03/24/20 218 72 28 9.3
03/23/20 174 58 22 7.2
03/22/20 165 55 21 7.0
03/21/20 118 39 15 5.0
03/20/20 96 32 12 4.1

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Arkansas

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 12 4.0 1.3 0.4
04/02/20 12 4.0 1.3 0.4
04/01/20 10 3.3 1.1 0.4
03/31/20 8 2.6 1.1 0.4
03/30/20 7 2.3 1.0 0.3
03/29/20 6 2.0 0.9 0.3
03/28/20 5 1.7 0.7 0.2
03/27/20 3 1.0 0.4 0.1
03/26/20 3 1.0 0.4 0.1
03/25/20 2 0.7 0.3 0.1
03/24/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/23/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/22/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/21/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Arkansas

All measures below are rolling 7 day averages except Total Tests and Total Tests per 1M residents which are cumulative counts of COVID-19 tests as of the date reported. Testing statistics are dependent on high quality reporting of negative test results by states. I'm only showing this data for states that don't have implausibly low testing rates and that have an A reporting grade from the COVID Tracking Project.

Date Total
Tests
Total
Tests
per 1M
Daily
Tests
(7d Avg)
Daily
Tests
per 1M
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positive
Rate
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 9,699 3,214 1,110 368 4.2%
04/02/20 8,523 2,824 955 316 4.6%
04/01/20 7,938 2,630 889 294 4.9%
03/31/20 6,482 2,148 760 252 5.7%
03/30/20 5,735 1,900 665 220 6.4%
03/29/20 3,453 1,144 368 122 10.1%
03/28/20 3,342 1,107 380 126 10.8%
03/27/20 1,926 638 211 70 19.3%
03/26/20 1,839 609 212 70 19.5%
03/25/20 1,717 569 207 69 17.1%
03/24/20 1,165 386 135 45 20.7%
03/23/20 1,080 358 132 44 16.4%
03/22/20 876 290 108 36 19.7%
03/21/20 685 227 87 29 17.4%
03/20/20 447 148 58 19 21.3%

more history ...

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.