Department of Numbers

Arizona COVID-19 Case and Testing Statistics

As of Friday April 03 2020, Arizona had 1,769 cases of COVID-19. Over the past week, Arizona was finding 148 new cases per day on average and recording 4.0 deaths per day. Data for Arizona is provided by the COVID Tracking Project and will be updated daily. The COVID Tracking Project gives Arizona a data quality grade of: B

Compare Arizona COVID-19 data to other states.

Arizona average daily new cases

The chart below shows the trend of new case discovery for Arizona. Flattening the curve of new daily cases will help alleviate the burden on hospitals and healthcare workers and help ensure that patients that need critical care can get it.

Note: If testing is insufficient the above curve will underrepresent true case discovery. Nationwide daily testing per million residents is currently 336.1. Reported Arizona testing per million residents per day is 323.5. Arizona testing may be underreported or insufficient relative to the US as a whole.

Arizona average daily deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 are likely better reported than the true number of positive cases. As a result, the trend in average daily deaths from COVID-19 might be a more telling measure of progression through the outbreak than daily average positive cases.

Statistics for positive cases of COVID-19 in Arizona

Total Cases and Total Cases per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Positive measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Cases
Total
Cases
per 1M
Daily
Positives
(7d Avg)
Daily
Positives
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 1,769 243 148 20.3
04/02/20 1,598 220 146 20.0
04/01/20 1,413 194 138 18.9
03/31/20 1,289 177 133 18.3
03/30/20 1,157 159 127 17.5
03/29/20 919 126 110 15.1
03/28/20 873 120 110 15.1
03/27/20 736 101 96 13.2
03/26/20 577 79 76 10.5
03/25/20 450 62 60 8.3
03/24/20 357 49 48 6.6
03/23/20 265 36 35 4.8
03/22/20 152 21 20 2.8
03/21/20 104 14 13 1.8
03/20/20 65 9 8 1.1

more history ...

Death statistics for COVID-19 in Arizona

Total Deaths and Total Deaths per 1M residents are cumulative counts. Daily Death measures are rolling 7 day averages.

Date Total
Deaths
Total
Deaths
per 1M
Daily
Deaths
(7d Avg)
Daily
Deaths
per 1M
(7d Avg)
04/03/20 41 5.6 4.0 0.6
04/02/20 32 4.4 3.4 0.5
04/01/20 29 4.0 3.3 0.5
03/31/20 24 3.3 2.7 0.4
03/30/20 20 2.8 2.6 0.3
03/29/20 17 2.3 2.1 0.3
03/28/20 15 2.1 2.0 0.3
03/27/20 13 1.8 1.9 0.3
03/26/20 8 1.1 1.1 0.2
03/25/20 6 0.8 0.9 0.1
03/24/20 5 0.7 0.7 0.1
03/23/20 2 0.3 0.3 0.0
03/22/20 2 0.3 0.3 0.0
03/21/20 1 0.1 0.1 0.0
03/20/20 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

more history ...

COVID-19 testing statistics in Arizona

Testing metrics for Arizona are too low for me to have faith that they are being accurately reported. I'm only reporting testing statistics for states with an A data grade from the COVID Tracking Project that test at a rate of at least 100 per million residents per day. Arizona is either not testing at that level or is not reporting their testing fully.

A final word on this analysis

In order to manage the outbreak, states need to increase their testing capacity. As testing increases, the number of detections as a fraction of total tests (positive rate) should hopefully decrease over time. If a state is able to test widely enough (at least 300 tests daily per million residents, probably more) to drive the positive rate down (less than 5%) there may be the potential to manage a regional outbreak with isolation, contact tracing and quarantine South Korea has.

Please take my calculations and amatuer epidemiological speculations with a huge grain of salt as I'm moving quickly to get what I hope are meaningful measures online. There may be errors in my data and my thinking!

These statistics were inspired by posts on Calculated Risk and the Bondad Blog regarding metrics to track for COVID-19.

Last but not least, thanks to the folks at COVID Tracking Project for making this data available to everyone.