Department of Numbers

NBER, GDP and Jobs Recessions

I've suggested previously that contemporary recessions have distinct GDP and employment components defined by the peak to trough decline in each. I will be updating this page monthly to reflect the status of these components along with the official NBER defined recession. As of May 2010 we are still in an NBER recession.1 The GDP recession appears to have ended in June 2009 while the jobs recession may have ended in December 2009.2 See the charts and table below for more details. NBER recession shown in gray.

Note: As of now I expect the NBER to call the end of the recession no later than December 2009. I've updated recession data throughout the site to reflect this.

GDP Recession

GDP fell 3.83% from peak to trough over a period of 13 months from June 2008 through June 2009.

Chart of employment/jobs from 2005 through May 2010

Jobs Recession

Employment fell by 8,363,000 jobs from peak to trough over a period of 24 months from December 2007 to December 2009.

Chart of real GDP from 2005 through May 2010

NBER, GDP & Jobs Recessions

The table enumerates the months of recession for the three different recession types as well as the union and intersection of GDP & jobs recessions.

Date NBER
Recession
GDP
Recession
Jobs
Recession
Union GDP &
Jobs Recession
Intersection GDP &
Jobs Recession
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007